Dagens Marknadsinsikt bjuder på ett par spaningar från JP Morgan Market Intelligence där man kan argumentera för båda sidor beroende på hur kommande data/förhandlingar faller ut. Jag tycker oavsett att det är tydliga punkter med tillhörande datum från världens största bank att lyfta fram denna helgstänga dag i Stockholm. Trevlig helgdag!
The Bull Case
Semis earnings strength – NVDA and AVGO (June 5) are key; ORCL’s $40bn chip commitment and Trump’s Middle East ties may boost guidance.
June macro data – ISM-Mfg (June 2), ISM-Services (June 4), NFP (June 6), CPI (June 11); NFP is most critical, but rising price pressures could show up quickly.
Trump pivots – Recent EU tariff delay suggests more flexibility ahead, possibly tied to high-value manufacturing focus.
Trade deals – Progress with China, EU, and Japan would support sentiment heading into USMCA review.
USD stabilization – A pause in the ‘Sell America’ narrative could pressure EM/international equities but boost US confidence.
Bond yields steady or lower – GOP pushback on the House bill may lead to a more deficit-neutral outcome, helping yields stay contained. (JPM market intelligence)
The Bear case:
Weak semis guidance – A miss from NVDA or AVGO could trigger fresh net-short positioning and signal weakening fundamentals.
Inflation surprise – PCE (May 29–30) and ISM Prices Paid may point to sticky inflation; risks shift from cuts to a potential Fed hike if growth holds.
Bond yields retest highs – Strong macro prints and fiscal concerns could push 10Y yields toward 5.0%, with high vol adding pressure on equities.
Trade war flare-up – Backsliding ahead of the 90-day US/China window could sour sentiment even without new tariffs.
Sectoral tariffs risk – New 25% tariffs on healthcare and semis would hit both defensives and tech, potentially leading to Mag7 concentration risk and accelerated dollar outflows.
