Jag tyckte nedan sammanställning från Goldman Sachs var rak på sak och intressant läsning för de som vill positionera sig för en ny runda med Donald Trump bakom spakarna i presidentvalet i november. Undertecknad anser liksom i krönikan “Still Climbing The Wall Of Worry” att valet redan är avgjort till Trumps favör. Istället för att jag översätter nedan till diskutabel svenska, får ni texten på engelska. Starkare dollar, positivt för inhemska amerikanska bolag (small caps), nackdel för europeiska aktier.
1. GS estimate that a 10% surcharge on US imports, if implemented, would modestly impact US growth and substantially weigh on Euro area growth given the sensitivity of Europe’s economy to trade policy uncertainty.
2. Higher US tariffs would also likely lead to a stronger Dollar, and while Trump has proposed devaluing the Dollar in conjunction with raising tariffs—in the vein of the 1971 Smithsonian Agreement—we think a unified and meaningful currency agreement looks unlikely given several macro, institutional, and logistical challenges.
3. On the equities front, large tariff increases would likely boost US stocks with domestic revenues and supply chains relative to internationally-exposed peers.
4. And for European equities, we estimate an overall 6-7pp hit to EPS from a 10% tariff on all US imports, though we think the stocks of companies with US exposure and some Defensives could perform well in a Trump re-election scenario.
5. Beyond tariffs, we think the prospect of deregulation under a Trump Administration would provide a modest boost to big tech stocks and, within corporate credit markets, Bank and Tech bonds.
