Nilörngruppen: Order intake comps are still easy - ABG

- We expect continued strong order intake momentum
- Minor estimate changes
- NTM EV/EBIT around 9x

What to look for in Q2'24e
Following the strong order intake in recent quarters, we expect a positive organic growth of 5% in Q2'24e. In terms of absolute numbers, we expect sales of SEK 241m (+5% organic, -1% FX) and EBIT of SEK 23m, corresponding to a margin of 9.6%. Our updated Q2 estimates therefore imply negative estimate revisions of -1% for Q2 sales and -4% for Q2 EBIT, on the back of FX changes. We expect Nilörn to generate an order intake of ~SEK 210m-220m, implying 26-32% y-o-y growth.

Estimate changes
We make only minor estimate changes, raising '26e sales by 1% and '25e-'26e EBIT by 1%. With continued easy comps for Q2e and Q3e, and an upcoming rebound in sports & outdoor, we expect strong business momentum in the coming 12-18 months. It is likely that Nilörngruppen will not achieve its EBIT margin target of at least 10% in '24e, but the conditions to achieve the target are better in '25e. In terms of inventory tie-up, we do not expect major changes, as Nilörn is set on growing its capacity.

Valuation
Our new estimates imply that Nilörngruppen is trading at an NTM EV/EBIT of ~9x. We note also that the company is trading at an NTM EV/EBIT level that is ~25% below the corresponding five-year median.