Skolon: Entering the year with tough comps - ABG

Minor estimate revisions
Expect primarily volume-driven growth
FVR of SEK 20-35 reiterated


What to expect in Q1'24e

For Q1'24, we expect sales of SEK 19m, implying y-o-y organic growth of 42% along with an EBITDA of SEK -0.5m. Q1 exhibits seasonal weakness, as demand for new digital school supplies/services declines following the commencement of a school term. However, we expect recurring revenues to support a gross margin of 51%. We estimate an increase in the number of paying users of 17% y-o-y, coupled with an ARPPU of SEK 143, corresponding to an increase of 41% y-o-y and 2% q-o-q. Somewhat tough comps are to be expected in the quarter, as Q1'23 showed a surge in subscription revenues on large contract wins in the Stockholm region. However, the negative comparable effects from the divestment of Svensk Talteknologi (STT) should not weigh as much on Q1'24 as in Q4'23 due to seasonally high Q4 sales in STT.