Nilörngruppen: Expect margin improvement in 2025 - ABG

Minor estimate revisions
Tougher order intake comps in Q4
NTM EV/EBIT around 7x


What to look for in Q4'24e

We continue to expect positive organic growth of 6% in Q4'24, and that implies sales of SEK 217m and adj. EBIT of ~SEK 15m, corresponding to a margin of 6.7%. Our updated Q4 estimates therefore imply negative estimate revisions of -2% for Q4 sales and -4% for Q4 EBIT on the back of FX changes and slightly lower organic growth. We expect Nilörn to generate an order intake of ~SEK 230m, implying a ~10% y-o-y decline, primarily due to difficult comps. Notwithstanding the difficult comp, SEK 230m in order intake is still solid from an absolute perspective.