Arctic Paper: Paper EBITDA in line - ABG

Paper EBITDA PLN 109m, in line vs ABGSCe PLN 108m
Group EBITDA miss driven by Rottneros
Paper markets still weak, but demand better


Beat on paper, miss on pulp

Q1 group EBITDA came in at PLN 112m, which compares to ABGSCe of PLN 130m. Paper EBITDA came in at PLN 109m, in line vs ABGSCe PLN 108m, i.e miss on group EBITDA mostly driven by weak Rottneros numbers (Q1 published 25 Apr). Rottneros had production issues at the Vallvik Mill, which reduced the EBITDA by ~SEK 30m (~PLN 12m). Paper EBIT was PLN 90m, 3% above ABGSCe PLN 87m. Group EBIT came in at PLN 84m, -15% vs. ABGSCe of PLN 99m. EPS came in at PLN 1.19 vs our estimate of PLN 0.98 due to better net financials (FX and interest income). CEO reiterates that they "still see a mixed picture due to uncertainty affecting the general economy". We expect Q2 Paper EBIT of PLN 70-80m, driven by higher pulp prices.

We expected Q1 Paper EBIT of PLN 87m, down from PLN 98m in Q4'23. The main effects q-o-q were likely: PLN -11m from FX (paper prices flat), PLN +45m from better volumes, PLN -41m from higher pulp prices (NBSK +12%, BHKP + 25%, with 1m lag) and PLN -4m from higher chemical costs. Pulp EBIT will likely be PLN 40-50m better q-o-q, driven by higher pulp prices and volumes. Hence, we expect Q1 group EBIT of PLN 99m vs. PLN 67m in Q4'23.