Qben Infra: Riding the wave of infra spending - ABG

Messy quarter, but 2025 guidance firm & in line with ABGSCe
Minor estimate changes, EBITA -1-2% on '25e-'26e
ABGSC FVR of SEK 10-21 (9-22), trading at 6-5x '25e-'26e EBITA


Q4 highlights

Qben's Q4 report showed lower-than-expected sales of SEK 292m vs. ABGSCe SEK 547m. This was largely due to the acquired ININ Group being integrated for just one month of the quarter (December, i.e. Q4's lowest-activity month). Despite this, management said that pro forma sales for 2024 was SEK 2,658m, which was in line with our expectations. Moreover, it guided for pro forma sales of SEK 3,100m in 2025, which was 1% below our expectation. The company did not share performance figures on the segment level, but pointed to continued strong growth in the underlying markets and that the relatively mild Nordic winter creates conditions for good activity in Q1. Profitability in Q4 was held back by costs associated with the listing in Sweden and the bond issue. Because of both this and only one month of sales from ININ Group, adj. EBITA was SEK -19m vs. ABGSCe at 70m. Management said the pro forma adj. EBITDA margin for 2024 was 9%, and that it expects the margin to increase to 10% in 2025, which was relatively in line with our expectations.