Cereno Scientific: A productive period with plenty more to come - Edison

Cereno Scientific has released its Q324 results, marking a productive and strategically significant period. Following the positive top-line data from the Phase IIa safety study of CS1 in pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), Cereno decided to concentrate its development programmes on rare diseases. Key developments included the selection of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) as the target indication for second asset, CS014, and the positioning of its preclinical asset, CS585, towards rare disease indications. In November 2024, Cereno announced a SEK250m capital raise, extending its cash runway into 2026. This funding secures financial resources to advance several key milestones, including FDA acceptance of the CS1 Phase IIb/III study and completion of the Phase I trial for CS014. We believe these developments de-risk Cereno’s clinical pathway and strengthen its position for potential partnering opportunities. We adjust our estimates for the Q3 results, with the increased debt servicing costs and higher net debt offsetting roll-forward benefits, resulting in our valuation remaining unchanged at SEK4.0bn or SEK14.3/share.